Leading Through Uncertainty

What if the challenge of uncertainty isn’t finding the right answer but learning how to think when the answer is less than obvious? Leaders must make progress on consequential problems where evidence is incomplete, reasonable people disagree, and every option involves trade-offs. Yet our instinct is often to respond to uncertainty by searching harder for certainty — additional data, further analysis, a clearer prediction. The result can be more confidence without better judgment — and sometimes solving the wrong problem altogether.

In this discussion, Elizabeth McClean, Associate Professor at Cornell's SC Johnson College of Business, and Melody Kelleher, Vice President of Talent Empowerment at Baker Hughes, explore how to lead when the path forward is unclear. Much of what shapes our decisions is invisible to us: the assumptions behind how we frame a problem, the interpretations we mistake for facts, the knowledge others hold that never makes it into the room. McClean and Kelleher will discuss how to see more of your own thinking, draw on what others see, and navigate the challenge of getting diverse perspectives not just in the room but actually heard.

Because leaders rarely get to wait until every uncertainty is resolved, the conversation will turn from understanding to progress: how to know when to act versus when to wait for more information and how small, purposeful moves create momentum. You'll leave with a practical way to approach problems without obvious answers by making the problem more visible, drawing on what others see, and identifying your next best step. The aim isn't certainty but better judgment and the ability to keep moving as the problem evolves.